- The story about how the lottery
retailers are "extra lucky" on the lottery winning in 2006: I found that
neither the media nor the Ontario
Lottery and Gaming Corporation are explaining the
probabilities properly. Here
is why I think having 200 insider winners may be quite reasonable after
all. Update: According to Ombudsman's
report, it appers that there is a serious problem in the
handling of
the insider winners. Actually, a summary of my analysis is included in
a paragraph (find it!) on that report and a few other statisticians had
similar
views. It appears that OLG did not keep track of the insiders' record
properly so that they were not able to justify my "heavy gamling"
theory, which is one of the main critisisms in the report.
Nevertheless, I would still like to know how many of these insider
winners can be explained by my heavy
gambling theory and how many of them actually stole money from the real
winners.
- 2004 prediction of the winner of the MLB
World
Series using a Bayesian model with the application of MCMC
algorithms. (Update: Our prediction is correct!)