• The story about how the lottery retailers are "extra lucky" on the lottery winning in 2006: I found that neither the media nor the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation are explaining the probabilities properly. Here is why I think having 200 insider winners may be quite reasonable after all. Update: According to Ombudsman's report, it appers that there is a serious problem in the handling of the insider winners. Actually, a summary of my analysis is included in a paragraph (find it!) on that report and a few other statisticians had similar views. It appears that OLG did not keep track of the insiders' record properly so that they were not able to justify my "heavy gamling" theory, which is one of the main critisisms in the report. Nevertheless, I would still like to know how many of these insider winners can be explained by my heavy gambling theory and how many of them actually stole money from the real winners.
  • 2004 prediction of the winner of the MLB World Series using a Bayesian model with the application of MCMC algorithms. (Update: Our prediction is correct!)